OSTP report

“For example, in their most recent assessment of climate change science, the IPCC concluded that it is unequivocal that the average temperature of Earth’s surface has warmed recently and it is very likely (greater than 90% probability) that most of this global warming is due to increased concentrations of human-generated greenhouse gases. … An increasing body of scientific research supports the conclusion that, while greenhouse gases are but one of many factors that affect climate, they are very likely the single largest cause of the recent warming. … Studies that rigorously quantify the effect of different external influences on observed changes (attribution studies) conclude that most of the recent global warming is very likely due to human-generated increases in greenhouse gas concentrations. A large number of climate model simulations show that natural factors alone cannot explain the observed warming in the second half of the 20th century of Earth’s land masses and oceans, or that of the North American continent. On the other hand, simulations that include human factors are able to reproduce important large-scale features of the recent changes. … Discernible human influences extend to additional aspects of climate, including the recent decreases in Arctic sea ice extent, patterns of sea level pressure and winds, and the global-scale pattern of land precipitation.  According to CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Product (SAP) 3.3, it is very likely that the human-induced increase in greenhouse gases has contributed to the increase in sea surface temperatures in the hurricane formation regions. …” (all italics from the original)

Hooray!  The current administration has come on board the anthropogenic climate change boat, posting a report titled ”Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on the United States” on its Office of Science and Technology Policy home page.  The above quotes are from the executive summary of the report, which runs to 271 pages and is thus going to take me a while to plow through. 

I’m glad that this has happened.  Unfortunately, the publication date being as late as it is pretty much precludes anything major happening before President Bush leaves office.  But I’m not going to look a gift horse in the mouth.  This sets the bar for the incoming President, whoever he or she may be.  Logically, if humans are very likely to have created or accelerated global warming, and if said global warming is likely to have a negative impact - for instance, if “[c]limate change is likely to increase the risk and geographic spread of vector-borne infectious diseases, including Lyme disease and West Nile virus” (p. 15) - then surely we are under obligation to address the issue and mitigate it as best as possible?